Gas is Only Cheap At Taco Bell

Just when you thought there was enough bad news to go around, it appears we’re in for another kick in the pants with predictions that utility prices are going to jump this winter.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in October that residential propane prices (most of us don’t use propane in Utah) were starting the winter heating season at their highest level since 2011. For people back east who use heating oil, they will see higher prices than what the past two years brought. ‘Winter Fuels Outlook’ forecasts that U.S. households who use natural gas to heat will spend an average of $746 on heat bills from October-March, which is 30% more than last year. Dominion Energy is passing on an 8.9% increase in natural gas as of this month to all us users in Utah. We’re lucky though that we get our gas from nearby states and Dominion stores it for later use, which keeps the price down.
It’s completely logical that residential prices for energy are going up because more people are staying at home working and using more gas and electricity. Utah has the lowest water prices in the west thanks to our Utah State Legislature, so don’t expect to see any jump in water bills despite the statewide drought.
There are a ton of options to help you pay your bills if you get into financial troubles. The website www.needhelppayingbills.com-ut is a terrific website that will help you find financial help and how to apply for assistance programs in all cities and counties in Utah. Residents who qualify can receive grants for paying utility bills, free medical care, rent or mortgage help. It gives you info on the Food Stamp (EBT cards) program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) as well as free legal aid, benefits for the disabled, social services and emergency assistance.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that this winter will be dryer in Southern Utah and the entire region is forecast to record above normal warmer temperatures. For weather geeks like me this year is another La Nina year-just like 2020. But the good news is October brought an early snowpack and sometimes La Nina surprises us and we end up with less snow in the valleys and above average flakes for the mountains. Last year Alta celebrated 553” of snow and we can all fast on Impossible Whoppers and pray to Cryokinesis, the Goddess of Snow for another banner year.
In Utah, Dominion Energy offers help for customers experiences hardship in paying their gas bills. They suggest for any customer to consider a gas Budget Plan that divides an estimated annual gas bill into 12 equal payments. That way instead of paying $300 in January you might just pay $60 a month every month. Commercial customers can also ask for a six month break on past-due balances. To make arrangements, email customercare@dominionenergy.com or call 800-323-5517

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/

SUPPLY CHAIN HELL

Raise your hand if you’re about ready to slap the next person who says the words “supply chain issues”! Snow tires are stuck on container ships and may not arrive until after the Easter Bunny comes in 2022. Rumors abound week to week that we’re running out of toilet paper again, that paper towels, yeast will be hard to find next month. Turkey birds will cost $.25 more per pound, and we may not have enough cranberry jelly to go around come Thanksgiving. Right now, you can walk into about any grocery store and see the spice shelves decimated and limits on bottled water purchases. And related to shortages is the scary news that U.S. households will pay more to heat homes this winter. Federal officials from the Energy Information Administration report that fuel prices are rising, and demand will increase for at least half of the country’s natural gas users…but an average of 30% more, adding electric bills will go up 6%.
I’ve been selling some new construction homes in Daybreak as of late. Builders are having trouble getting things like roofing shingles, sheet rock and faucets. One of the builders, Oakwood Homes has a swell showroom by Fashion Place Mall. Once you pick out your lot and style of home at Daybreak then you get to the fun part of choosing flooring, paint colors, bathroom tile and kitchen backsplashes. They have one wall of a dozen kitchen faucets in a variety of colors and finishes. Sadly, only two of the choices are available now, and the others might not arrive for 6-12 months.
Looking for a washer/dryer or refrigerator? Be prepared to wait up to a year for the model you want, as there are fewer options and no deals to be had. You really need to hunt around. If the big box store doesn’t have your make and model, check for smaller, local appliance stores. The more bells and whistles an appliance has, the more chips are needed. Chips are in short supply for everything! Consider scratched or used model appliances, but make sure the warranty passes on to you. When you buy a home, you might be able to negotiate for the seller to buy you a home warranty on the appliances in the home for a year. When something busts you call the 1-800 number, and they send you a repair person who will fix your issue or get you a new item. Small note: if the washer is from the 1960’s the warranty company might only give you a few hundred bucks for a replacement-but it’s still better than getting nothing for a repair. If the seller doesn’t want to buy you a warrant you can always buy one yourself. Home warranty companies are numerous.
Wisdom with appliances-if you must forgo getting new ones, take care of the ones you’ve got. Clean dryer vents, dishwasher filters and refrigerator coils a few times each year. Then when the supply chain gets better links and the ports start operating normally, you can go out shopping for your dream freezer or top loader washer.

SCHOOL DAZE

It’s September, when the smell of a pencil erasure or a new pad of paper makes me sigh for school days gone by. If you’re a commuter, you may sigh more often because school zones are now in effect around the state. I recently had a conversation with some buyers who really liked a home I showed them but were not pleased there was a school across the street. Having lived across from an elementary school years ago I gladly chimed in to say that there were great benefits to living near a school, like knowing when people would be there or not be there during the day and weekends, and having a swell playground to throw a ball with my dog or shoot hoops with friends. Sure, there is traffic during certain hours as buses and parents bring and take students to and from the school which brings noise, but there’s also a lot of eyes on the grounds which can help with security in the neighborhood.

School locations actually add value to a property, and according to two decades of research done by Duke University housing prices increase when student scores are high, and economists at the New York Times have estimated that a five percent improvement in student test scores in suburban neighborhoods can raise home prices by 2.5%. The Brookings institution found that after studying one hundred of the largest metro areas in the United States they found an average difference of $205,000 in home prices between houses in areas where students have high test scores vs in neighborhoods where schools have low test scores.

A study by BiggerPockets.com found that schools with a low student to teacher ratio, great enrollment and test scores with a school rating of four or five stars were ‘completely insulated form declining home values during a recession’.  That means it would be easier for you to sell your home if the market went south, and conversely get a great price when the market is strong.  I often have parents or parents to be who are buyers come to me to say they don’t really care so much about the house and its condition but they definitely want to be in a certain school district or by a certain school and would sacrifice square footage, parking and such to live there. Is it just me, or have you noticed that the whiter the neighborhood, the higher the property values and the better the schools?

There are a bazillion websites now that rate schools. Ones I recommend are greatschools.org, utahschoolgrades.schools.utah.gov, and slcschools.org. It goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway…DO your research if you’re planning to buy or rent near a school, or, want to be near a specific school itself. Your REALTOR should be able to put you in touch with past clients who live near the school or have kids attending there who can give you a real take on the sitch.

 

https://www.raleighrealtyhomes.com/blog/how-schools-impact-home-values.html

BUBBLE BURSTING?

Uh oh! Is the bubble bursting? Park City’s Board of REALTORS reports that all three of their major weekly stats, new, pending and closed listings, continue to drop compared to 2020. That makes seven weeks in a row this has happened. And the drops are either the largest year-to-date (new listings) or second largest (sold listings). Pendings are down as well but not as severely.  They see a trend developing here which isn’t necessarily a bad thing as the market traditionally trends downward starting in late summer,  as people get ready to go back to school or their get their kids ready to go back into classes. Inventory is still at insane lows (less than a month’s worth of inventory).

Most Boards of REALTORS/MLS sites are reporting a slowing in September in Utah, from Washington County to Northern Utah. Interest rates on home mortgages remain at all time lows and the Fed isn’t expected to raise rates anytime these last few months of the year. The stock markets in the U.S. are at the highest they’ve ever been and there really aren’t any indicators that the financial markets are headed to hell in a handbasket.  So what’s this mean to you?

If you’re in the market to shop for a home or condo, now would be a great time to get super serious!  You may have a chance to NOT get in a bidding war on a property or only go up against a few other buyers in an attempt to win a contract. Although homes in entry level prices are still flying off the MLS in record time, you may be able to discover a gem that may have been sitting too long on the market at an inflated price. Many property owners have dipped their toes in the real estate market this year to see how much buyers are willing to pay for their property. Given Salt Lake City homes were selling in less that ten days this summer, a home still on the market after 30 days looks super suspicious!  Savvy buyers who’ve been paying attention to the MLS feeds ask me, “What’s wrong with that house-it’s been on the market for THREE months!  Is it broken, or haunted?”  My sage advice to any buyer who hasn’t been able to secure a contract this summer should look to properties that have ‘soured’ on the market by sitting there without aggressive pricing and price reductions. Grab your cahones and throw in a low bid and see what bounces back at you! It doesn’t cost a dime to MAKE an offer on a home, and who knows, you might just get an accepted contract!  (Mind you, if you do get a seller to agree to your terms you would have to deposit your earnest money within four days of the contract being accepted).

Back to the bubble: NO it’s not bursting. Our markets are slowing because that’s normal this time of year when many of us would rather be rooting for the home team on a Saturday or Sunday than out looking at homes to buy.

FALL CHECK UP

Before winter sets in, it’s good to prevent maintenance issues! Unless you have mad skills, call professionals to come and do a health/maintenance checkup at your home:

-check your appliances. Vacuum the refrigerator fan/coils at the bottom or back of the unit to avoid overheating and save on electricity.

-Check hoses on the dishwasher and washer/dryer once a year for any bulges, cracks, or leaks.

-Change furnace filters every 3 months-especially now that our air is so smoky from West Coast fires.

-Check to see if you have surge protectors connected to your electrical devices to avoid overheating and fires. Replace frayed or worn cords on all electrical appliances.

-Check your roof for loose shingles, worn flashing and damaged/leaking gutters.

-If your water heater is making noises or you have low water pressure you may have issues. If there is water evident on the floor underneath it, you need a new one!

Has landscaping and dirt creeped too close to your foundation? Keep at least two feet of space between your home’s foundation and landscaping. You don’t want water coming into your basement if we get the surprise deluge from Mother Nature. Check that your gutter downspouts are pointed away from your foundation, and remember to clean out your gutters.

We recently installed a new security system at our home. We added two small wallet-sized water detection alarms that we put near our water heater and near the washer/dryer. Twice this summer the alarms went off and we were notified on our phone. Thank goodness because if we hadn’t been alerted our basement would have been flooded due to a broken water softener! Smoke, water, and CO2 alarms are all available at Lowes.

Also, quit throwing money in the grave-Try these simple tips to save on utility bills this winter:

-when clean your refrig and remove the dust bunnies, set the temp so that it’s cold enough to store food but not so low you waste energy;

-use the right size burner on your stove for the pan you’re working with. It saves heat and saves you money.

-only run your dishwasher when it’s full. It also saves water to use a full dishwasher rather than handwash each dish.

-make sure when you wash clothes you set the machine for the appropriate load size and clean your dryer vent often so it will run more efficiently. Washing on COLD saves money and use dryer balls to reduce drying time.

-change furnace filters at least every quarter and update your thermostat so you can control your temps via an app. Nest-like thermostats have helped improve our wise use of our heating and cooling systems.

-update your light bulbs to LED bulbs.

-update appliances if you can afford them, and with the interruption of the supply/shipping chain…if you can find them!

I made a checklist that I go over every quarter for me to check around my home, inside and out, to avoid potential surprises and disasters at our home base, our nest.

Our Salt Lake

I heard some info about our future in this state regarding the Great Salt Lake. Frankly, it put chills up my spine and made me wonder if I should be thinking of an exit plan before it’s too late to get the hell out of Dodge because our lake is dying FAST and the outcome is going to be horrific!

Our photographed, but much maligned lake is about 75 miles long and 28 miles wide covering @1700 square miles, and is the largest lake of it’s kind in the western hemisphere. It is also one of the most important bodies of water for bird migration in this same hemisphere, and if the lake dies, millions of migratory birds will also die…as wells mammals, plants, reptiles, amphibians, and invertebrates. Many of you reading this don’t know that part of the lake is fresh water and is fed by northern streams. This is where our avian friends like to rest before migrating north or south. According to Westminster College’s Great Salt Lake Institute millions of birds from 257 known species rely on our funky, salty lake to survive.

The southern portion of the GSL is now at a historic new low-with some levels only 1.5 feet deep. There is algae and tiny creatures there that the brine shrimp feed on, and all those birds love to get fat on those sea monkeys (aka brine shrimp). If those creatures all die, then the birds will die. As the lake dries up from poor runoff that leads into the north and south sections, more dust will get into our air. U.S Magnesium Corp. mines the lake and provides 14% of the world’s supply of the mineral that’s used in all sorts of metal products. Companies also take potash (fertilizer) and salt for seasonings, plastics, roads and detergents. All that gets into our air and ends up in the winter on top of our snow. That dust and color change affects our snow melt. Lower snow melt means less water for the lake. Do you see the trending circle of hell?

Our legislature passed a bill a few years back that basically states ‘Our lake is important to the state and it should have water’. However this bill did nothing to fund programs to increase water flow to the lake.

Every hour on the hour radio and TV news squawk about Covid and what it’s doing to our country. I rarely see news about how scary it’s going to be if and when our lake no longer produces the food necessary in the environmental chain of life in Utah. Odd, but most local television news that I watch gives regular reports on Lake Powell, Echo, Sand Hollow, Bear Lake, etc. but never a regular report on our Great Salt Lake.  The professor I listened to said that come this November we may reach the tipping point that the lake won’t come back from this drought and we’re in for bad news on the horizon.

Tiny Town

Los Angeles has built apartments for homeless people out of shipping crates. The Hilda L. Solis Care First Village is located close to downtown L.A. on 4.2 acres. You might recognize her name if you’ve lived in California, as she chairs the LA County Board of Supervisors.  This amazing project offers 232 housing units along with a common building that holds a commercial kitchen, dining area, laundry facilities and administrative offices. There’s also a dog park, good parking and wise landscaping.

The simplicity of this project is beautiful. The steel shipping crates were stacked atop each other to three stories. They are stacked and fixed into place, with stairs and ramps leading up and down. Each container is able to offer two apartments, each about 135 square feet, and each equipped with a private bathroom (shower, toilet, sink), a twin bed, microwave (not stove), small refrigerator, it’s own heat/AC unit and a flat screen TV attached to the wall. It opened this spring and was fully occupied within 30 days. It cost $57 million to build, but $51 million of the total cost came from monies generated by the CARES Act during Covid and the rest paid for by Los Angeles County.

Why do we care about what LA is doing? Well Salt Lake City is all a buzz with a new planned development of mini homes being created in a partnership between Salt Lake City government and the non-profit, The Other Side Academy in an industrial area of the west side on about 1800 West and 800 South (Indiana). Currently the 45 acres there has one home and a huge auto junkyard as neighbors, and so to actually build a mini home subdivision a major zoning change would have to occur. Although this isn’t a plan to use shipping containers, it is a credible idea that could make an impact on the lack of housing options for the unsheltered…about 400 of them if this plan succeeds.

I have seen the proposed renderings of the subdivision and it looks pretty cool on paper, with plenty of green space around the homes and a mix of some retail and office space as well as room for community gardens and common spaces.  The goal would be to have non-profit service providers on site to counsel inhabitants to improve mental health (if needed), assist in job searches and a space for medical services. A lot of the idea for this project come from a truly successful program in Austin, Texas, called Community First! Village which was built by a non-profit in Texas (‘Loaves & Fishes’) back in 2004. It has enabled hundreds of chronically homeless people living on the streets. They were able to get their master-planned community of men and women through the ‘NIMBY’s who feared such a group of people coming to live in their city. Funny, but those people were already living in their city!

Let’s cross our fingers that maybe Joseph Grenny and his Utahcentric Other Side Academy can do the same here for our unsheltered friends that Texas has been able to do for theirs.

ECON 101

Remember back in Econ 101 when we learned what a GDP is? Refresher: It’s the market value of all the goods and services produced in a certain geographic area. Places with a large GDP will generally have a high standard of living. Politicians and economists want their city, county, state and/or country to have a great GDP, and Utah now has that golden ray of sun shining through the clouds at us right now. Forbes magazine has just rated us the number one state with the biggest growth in our gross domestic products. But really, what does that mean?

Utah’s economy is HOT. It has been for several years. Our GDP has grown from $123.47 billion in 2010 to $168.62 billion in 2020 (despite COVID). It grew 82% from 2000 to 2020 and the pandemic barely seems to have made a major difference in our state’s production machinery, having come back from the pandemic faster than any other state. We have a diversified economy that’s strong in technology, oil, gas, salt and coal mining, tourism, manufacturing, agriculture and finance.

Sadly though, the drought we’re suffering may tilt some of the figures into negative columns in the next few years and slow our GDP. For example, farmers can’t get water to grow hay, ranchers are planning to sell off stock because hay is too expensive and beef prices will be skyrocketing. Snow totals are down and expected to get worse which will affect tourism at our resorts. This despite how well we are known since we hosted the world in the 2002 Winter Olympics.

The next nine states with the highest GDP are Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, California, Texas, Georgia and Florida. The western states are all experiencing extreme weather conditions which include heat and drought as well as fires. GDP can turn sour if we buy less, government cuts back on spending, we export less and business investment falls. Utah exports a wide variety of goods, like microchips, medical equipment, aircraft parts, and auto safety products. But if you want to win the weekly trivia night at your local pub, answer this question: What is our largest mineral export? (fade in Jeopardy music). GOLD. Utah and Nevada are the two states neck and neck with gold production.

If you’re a stats geek or just interested in following the health of our economy, watch the periodic, but regular GDP reports. If the measurement in Utah begins to drop that means we’re going to see a decline in per capital income. The poor will suffer more than the rich, as in the adage ‘The poor will get poorer, the rich, richer’. When you hear reporters talk of businesses suffering in declining revenues and unemployment is rising, the talk will start up again to sus out if we are heading into a recession. What we do know right now is that food and gas prices are just going up, up and up which is making an impact on all our standards of living.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewdepietro/2021/08/04/2021-us-states-by-gdp-and-which-states-have-experienced-the-biggest-growth/?sh=17796b0a846c

Water Woes

Planning that annual trip to Lake Powell soon? How about just a quick trip from Salt Lake up to Echo Reservoir? These Utah bodies of water and many others are in crisis due to the extreme drought conditions, down to just 25-35% of capacity. Powell had to recently steal from Flaming Gorge just to keep enough water to spin the turbines that create enough electricity for places like Las Vegas. The forecast for water here is grim, and it’s not looking good for skiers thanks to global warming.

We can all help save water, and it starts simply with being aware of our water use. Here’s examples: shower: 5 gallons/minute; bath: 36 gallons/per use; brushing teeth (with water running): 1 gallon/minute; washing hands or face: 1 gallon/minute; dishwasher: 10 gallons/load; hand washing dishes: 2 gallons/minute; laundry: 40 gallons/load for older models, 27 gallons for newer models; flushing toilet: 3 gallons/flush; watering the lawn: 10 gallons/minute.  Make yourself a list of what you do based on the uses stated above and see how much water you’re using every 24 hours.

On top of evaluating your usage, check your faucets. The U.S. Geological Survey has a handy Drip Calculator that will show you how much water a leaky faucet wastes over time. Locally we’re being asked to just water lawns twice a week. In Las Vegas, grass lawns have been outlawed. Planting drought-tolerant plants or putting in a good quality of fake grass will drastically cut water use at your home.

Until recently it was illegal to harvest rain water in Utah. As of 2010, all Utahns are allowed to collect 2,500 gallons of rainwater on their property in covered above ground containers or in underground cisterns. Most water in the state is owned by the state of Utah. If you want to collect it in more than two containers under 100 each or in one container over 100 gallons, you must register with the Utah Division of Water Rights (free, and simple on-line form). You can then use that captured rain to irrigate your lawn or garden, supplement your drip irrigation system, water inside plants, wash your car or bike, wash your windows, wash out recyclable bottles and cans before putting them in your recycling bin, and use it to rinse off your artificial grass after your animals use it for a potty station.

Sadly, we don’t have state laws that ban car washes from using drinking water, but many chains do recycle some of the water after each wash. However, we do have a site to report water abusers: www.water.utah.gov/fameorshame. You can use the site to answer a Survey Monkey to snitch (shame) on water wasters, and you don’t have to leave your name. They won’t publicly shame abusers but will seek them out to help mediate the waste.  For those who are trying not to waste our water you can use the same site to report water savers (fame).

www.scienceovereverthing.com  for water use amounts

Climate Gentrification

We hear this term ‘gentrification’ a lot these days when it comes to neighborhoods. Basically, by definition, it’s when a poor neighborhood is changed by wealthier buyers and renters moving in, which then generally pushes out the less financially abundant folk living there.  I became aware of this in Salt Lake City many decades ago when John Williams, one of the owners of Gastronomy/Market Street Grill/The New Yorker purchased a home in the Capitol Hill area. At that point in time many people were astounded that he didn’t buy a home in the Harvard/Yale, Federal Heights, or Holladay neighborhoods where expensive homes are traditionally found. Williams had lived downtown and buying on the Hill was a natural for him because the new home was close to his office, but people still scratched their head as to why he’d live in an area that hadn’t been known as an ‘exclusive neighborhood’.  Thanks to Williams homesteading in a less expensive neighborhood, buyer’s eyes turned to the wonderfully historic homes around the state capitol building and soon a younger and more affluent group of buyers called the Marmalade and Capitol Hill neighborhoods home. Over the years this has happened to such neighborhoods in the Salt Lake Valley as lower Sugar House, Taylorsville, areas around Cottonwood Heights (i.e., White City), and Rose Park. It’s now visible in the lower 9th and 9th neighborhood, Poplar Grove and Glendale as the ‘up and coming’ places to live.

A whole new type of gentrification is beginning to happen along the East Coast shoreline communities, now dubbed ‘climate gentrification’ CNN news stated last month that it’s a “process in which wealthier people fleeing from climate-risky areas spur higher housing prices and more aggressive gentrification in safer areas.”  The black working-class neighborhoods on high ground in New Orleans have seen new neighbors coming in and grabbing up cheaper homes above the flood plain and pushing up housing prices. Did you happen to see the horrific news of the condo building collapsing in the Miami area last month that killed almost 100 people living in building the middle of the night? There’s a new mentality to flee from the danger of hurricane winds, storm surges and water damage and move inland to higher ground.

“Climate-risky cities around the country are also seeing signs of gentrification…where booming real estate prices in higher-ground, minority neighborhoods – like Little Haiti – have been tied to sea level rise,” reported CNN. It’s a fact that as the climate changes sea levels will rise. New York City is only 33’ above sea level, Miami is 6.5’ and San Francisco is 52’ near the bay.  The areas of the U.S. that see the most coastal flooding include Tampa, Charleston, Long Island and New Jersey.

Given the massive monsoon rains in Southern Utah this year, homeowners may want to re-assess if they should live on higher ground in the future if these storms are going to become the norm. The theory of climate gentrification would then logically point to affordable housing appearing in flood-prone neighborhoods. And flood insurance is extremely expensive!